Effort Estimation - sources

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WWW pages
  1. * Simula Research Laboratory /Better Estimation of Software Tasks- good, practical publications on effort estimation- a real treasure chest of effort estimation information! Check also BEST home page.
  2. COCOMO II Research Project
  3. Dod DACS home page => Cost Estimation
  4. NASA Handbook for Software Cost Estimation
  5. Softstar Systems - good COCOMO overview
  6. COSMIC-FFP software sizing method home page, COSMIC-FFP is based on ISO/IEC 19761 standard, for publications click here
  7. IFPUG - International Function Point Users Group - Home Page
  8. International Software Benchmarking Standards Group: Software estimation, benchmarking, productivity, risk analysis, and cost information
  9. Function Point FAQ
  10. Bournemouth University Software Cost Estimation Website
  11. Federation of European Software Metrics Associations
  12. Finnish Software Metrics Associations (Functional software size measurement method)
  13. QSM articles about estimation and metrics
  14. Software Estimation, The IT Metrics and Productivity Institue

Books, articles



  1. * Simula Research Laboratory /Better Estimation of Software Tasks- practically all the reports and articles are worth reading also for a practitioner
  2. * P. Armor: ”Ten Unmyths of Project Estimation”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 15 - 18, November 2002
  3. * B. Boehm: Software Cost Estimation with COCOMO II, Prentice Hall, 2000
  4. * C. Camden: "Unrealistic project estimates: The IT consultant as an enabler", TechRepublic/IT Consultant, September 4th, 2009
  5. * M. Cohn: Agile Estimating and Planning, Prentice Hall PTR, 2005
  6. * C.A. Dekkers: ”Concepts and Consideration for Requirements-Based Estimates”, pp. 26 - 33, Software Quality Professional, March 2005
  7. * T. DeMarco: Controlling Software Projects, Yourdon Press, 1982
  8. * T. DeMarco & T. Lister: Peopleware, Yourdon Press, 1999
  9. * R.L. Glass: ”Sorting Out Software Complexity”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 19 - 21, November 2002
  10. * R. Hadden: ”Credible Estimation for Small Projects”, Software Quality Professional, March 2001
  11. * M. Jørgensen: "Practical Guidelines for Expert-Judgment-Based Software Effort Estimation", IEEE Softwar, pp. 57-63, May/June 2005
  12. * J.P. Lewis: ”Limits of Software Estimation”, Software Engineering Notes, pp. 54 - 59, July 2001 - good overview of estimation methods
  13. * S. Rakitin:”Creating Accurate Estimates and Realistic Schedules”, Software Quality Professional, pp. 30 - 36, March 2002
  14. Agile COCOMO II
  15. Agile Estimation, Eclipse Procvess Framework wiki
  16. Functional Sizing of Real-Time & Embedded Systems, theme issues, DACS SoftwareTech, September 2006
  17. Functional Size Measurement, theme issue, DACS SoftwareTech News, June 2006
  18. Planning Poker in Wikipedia, Planning Poker’s online version
  19. Wide Band Delphi in Wikipedia, in Stellman-Greene’s pages
  20. IT Measurement: Practice Advice from the Experts, International Function Point Users Group, Pearson Education, 2002
  21. IEEE Software magazine theme issue on effort estimation, IEEE Software, November/December, 2000
  22. IEEE std 1045 - 1992, Standard for Software Productivity Metrics
  23. ISO/IEC 19761:2003 Standard: COSMIC-FFP -- A functional size measurement method, to buy go to: http://www.iso.ch
  24. COCOMO II Model Definition Manual, University of Southern California, 1997,
    http://sunset.usc.edu/research/COCOMOII/index.html
  25. New Directions in Software Estimation, theme issue of SoftwareTech, October 2008
  26. A. Abran: “Function Point Analysis: An Empirical Study of its Measurement Process”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 895 - 910, December 1996
  27. T. K. Abdel-Hamid: “Adapting, Correcting, and Perfecting Software Estimates: A Maintenance Metafor”, IEEE Computer, pp. 20 - 29, March 1993
  28. R. Agarwal, et.al.: ”Estimating software projects”, Software Engineering Notes, pp. 60 - 67, July 2001
  29. A.J. Albrecht: Measuring Application Development Productivity, (FPA), Proceedings IBM Applications Development Symposium, IBM, 1979
  30. A.J. Albrecht & J.E. Gaffney: Software Function, Source Lines of Code , and Development Effort Prediction: A Software Science Validation, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, November 1983
  31. B. C. D. Anda, H. C. Benestad, S. E. Hove: A Multiple-Case Study of Effort Estimation based on Use Case Points, In: ISESE'2005 (Fourth International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering). IEEE Computer Society, Noosa, Australia, pages 407–416, 2005.
  32. G. Antioniol, K. Lokan, G. Caldiera, R. Fiutem: ”A Function Point-Like Measure for Object-Oriented Software”, Empirical Software Engineering, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 263 - 287, 1999
  33. P.G. Armour: ”Real Work, Necessary Friction, Optional Chaos”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 15 - 18, June 2004
  34. P.G. Armour: ”Beware of Counting LOC”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 21 - 24, March 2004
  35. J. Bentley: ”The Back of The Envelope”, IEEE Software, pp. 121 - 125, September/October 1999
  36. L. Bernstein, A. Lubashevsky: ”Living with Function Points”, CrossTalk, Nov.-Dec. 1995
  37. B. Boehm, J. A. Lane: "Using the Incremental Commitment Model to Integrate System Acquisition, Systems Engineering, and Software Engineering", CrossTalk, October 2007
  38. B. Boehm: ”Safe and Simple Software Cost Analysis”, IEEE Software, pp. 14 - 17, Septembe/October, 2000
  39. B. Boehm: Software Engineering Economics, Prentice-Hall, 1981
  40. B. Boehm: ”Understanding and Controlling Software Costs”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, October 1987
  41. M.B. Busby & E.K. Bailey: Software Efforts Measurement: A Framework for Counting Staff Hours and Reporting Schedule Information, SEI-92-TR-021, Software Engineering Institute, 1992
  42. B.K. Clark: ”Quantifying the Effects of Process Improvement of Effort”, IEEE Software, pp. 65 - 70, November/December 2000
  43. R. K. Clemmons: "Project Estimation With Use Case Points", CrossTalk, February 2006
  44. D. J. Coe: "Improving Consistency of Use Case Points Estimates", CrossTalk, Mar 2008
  45. P. Coombs: IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software, Cambridge University Press, 2003
  46. G. Costagliola, F. Ferrucci, G. Tortora, G. Vitiello ”Class Point: An Approach for the Size Estimation of Object-Oriented Systems", IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 52 - 74, January 2005
  47. J. J. Dolado: ”A Validation of the Component-Based Method for Software Size Estimation”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 1006 - 1021, October 2000
  48. J. B. Dreger: Function Point Analysis, Prentice Hall, 1989
  49. S. Furey, B. Kitchenham: “Point-Counterpoint: Function Points”, IEEE Software, pp. 29, 31, March/April 1997
  50. D. D. Galorath, M. W. Evans: Software Sizing, Estimation, and Risk Management: When Performance is Measured Performance Improves, Auerbach Publications, 2006
  51. D. Garmus, D. Herron: Function Point Analysis: Measurement Practices for Successful Software Projects, Addison Wesley, 2001
  52. N. Gorla & A.C. Benander & B.A. Benander: ”Debugging Effort Estimation Using Software Metrics”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 223 - 231, February 1990
  53. M. Griffith: ”Top 10 Estimation Best Practices”, Jan 17, 2008
  54. Guidelines to Software Measurement, IFPUG (International Function Point Users Group), August 2004
  55. Function Point Counting Practices Manual, IFPUG (International Function Point Users Group), 1990
  56. P.R. Hill: Practical Project Estimation: A Toolkit for Estimating Software Development Effort and Duartion, International Software Benchmarking Standards Group, free online book for ACM members
  57. R. W. Jensen, L. H. Putnam Sr., W. Roetzheim: ”Software Estimating Models: Three Viewpoints”, CrossTalk, February 2006
  58. P. M. Johnson, et. al.: ”Empirically Guided Software Effort Guesstimation”, IEEE Software, pp. 51 - 56, November/December, 2000
  59. C. Jones: Estimating Software Costs, McGraw-Hill Osborne Media, 2007
  60. C. Jones: A history of function points and feature points, Software Productivity Research, Inc., mimeo version 2.0, February, 20, 1988
  61. C. Jones: Applied Software Measurement, McGraw-Hill, 1991
  62. C. Jones: “Software estimating rules of thumb”, IEEE Computer, pp. 116 - 118, March 1996
  63. M. Jørgensen: Estimation of Software Development Work Effort: Evidence on Expert Judgment and Formal Models, Simula Research Laboratory, 2007
  64. M. Jørgensen, B. Faugli, T. Gruschke: Characteristics of Software Engineers with Optimistic Predictions, Simula Research Laboratory, 2007
  65. M. Jørgensen, and M. Shepperd: A Systematic Review of Software Development Cost Estimation Studies, Simula Research Laboratory, 2007
  66. M. Jørgensen: ”Evidence-Based Guidelines for Assessment of Software Development Cost Uncertaint”, Transactions of Software Engineering, pp. 942-954, November 2005
  67. M. Jørgensen: The Effects of the Format of Software Project Bidding Processes, Simula Research Laboratory, 2005
  68. M. Jørgensen, "Top-Down and Bottom-Up Expert Estimation of Software Development Effort", Journal of Information and Software Technology 46(1):3--16, 2004
  69. M. Jørgensen, G.J. Carelius: ”An Empirical Study of Software Project Bidding”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 953 - 969, December 2004
  70. M. Jørgensen, D. I. Sjøberg: "The impact of customer expectation on software development effort estimates", International Journal of Project Management 22(4):317--325, 2004 or Simula Research Laboratory
  71. M. Jørgensen: ”Increasing Realism in Assessment of Effort Estimation Uncerainty: It Matters How You Ask”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 209 - 217, April 2004 or Simula Research Laboratory
  72. M. Jørgensen, K. H. Teigen, K. J. Moløkken-Østvold: "Better sure than safe? Overconfidence in judgment based software development effort prediction intervals", Journal of Systems and Software 70(1-2):pp. 79--93, February 2004
  73. M. Jørgensen, K. J. Moløkken-Østvold: Combination of software development effort prediction intervals: Why, when and how?, Fourteenth IEEE Conference on Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering (SEKE'02), July 15-19, 2002, Ischia, Italy, pp. 425-428
  74. C. Kemerer: "Reliability of Function Points Measurement: A Field Experiment." Communications of the ACM, pp. 85-97, February 1993
  75. C. F. Kemerer & B.S. Porter: ”Improving the Reliability of Function Point measurement: An Empirical Study”, IEEE Transaction on Software Engineering, pp. 1011 - 1024, November 1992
  76. C.F. Kemerer: "An Empirical Validation of Software Cost Estimation Models", Communications of the ACM, pp. 416 - 429, May 1987
  77. B. Kitchenham, E. Mendes: ”Software Productivity Measurement Using Multiple Size Measures”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 1023 - 1035, December 2004
  78. L. A. Laranjeira: ”Software Size Estimation of Object-Oriented Systems”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 510 - 522, May 1990
  79. LATURI-käsikirja, Tietotekniikan kehittämiskeskus, 1991
  80. A.L. Lederer & J. Prasad: ”Nine Management Guidelines for Better Cost Estimating”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 51 - 59, February 1992
  81. B. Londeix: Cost Estimation for Software Development, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company Inc., 1987
  82. D. Longstreet's free Function Point Analysis Booklet, 2008
  83. G.C. Low & D.R. Jeffery: ”Function Points in the Estimation and Evaluation of Software Process”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 64 - 71, January 1990
  84. S. McConnell: Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. 50 Specific Tips for Improving Your Software Estimates, Microsoft Press 2002
  85. E. Miranda: ”Improving Subjective Estimates Using Paired Comparisons”, IEEE Software, pp. 87 - 91, January/February 2001
  86. T. Mukhopadhyay & S. Kekre: ”Software Effort Models for Early Estimation of Process Applications”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 915 - 924, October 1992
  87. P. Mohagheghi, B. Anda, R. Conrade: ”Effort Estimation of Use Cases for Incremental Large-Scale Software Development”, Simula Research Laboratory, 2005
  88. R. Ovans: "The programmer life-cycle", ACM Software Engineering Notes, pp. 25 - 26, May 2004
  89. M. A. Parthasarathy: Practical Software Estimation: Function Point Methods for Insourced and Outsourced Projects, Addison-Wesley Professional, 2007
  90. R.E.Park: A Manager’s Checklist for Validating Software Cost and Schedule Estimates, SEI-95-SR-004, Software Engineering Institute, 1995
  91. R.E.Park: Checklist and Criteria for Evaluating the Cost and Schedule Estimating Capabilities for Software Organizations, SEI-95-SR-005, Software Engineering Institute, 1995
  92. R.E.Park: Software Size Measurement: A Framework for Counting Source Statements, SEI-92-SR-020, Software Engineering Institute, 1992
  93. Y. Pant, B. Henderson-Sellers, J.M. Verner: "Generalization of object-oriented components for reuse: Measurements of effort and size change", Journal of Object-Oriented Programming, May 1996
  94. S. L. Pfleeger, F. Wu, R. Lewis: Software Cost Estimation and Sizing Methods. Issues and Guidelines, RAND Corporation, 2005
  95. L. Prechelt: ”An Empirical Comparison of Seven Programming Languages”, IEEE Computer, pp. 23 - 29, October 2000
  96. L. Prechelt: ”Comparing Java vs. C/C++ Efficiency Differencies to Interpersonal Differencies”, Communications of the ACM, pp. 109 - 112, October 1999
  97. L.H. Putnam & W. Myers: ”How Solved Is the Cost Estimation Problem?”, IEEE Software, pp. 105 - 107, November/December 1997
  98. L.H. Putnam & W. Myers: Measures for excellence. Reliable Software on Time, within Budget, Yourdon Press, 1992
  99. D.J. Reifer: ”Estimating Web Development Costs: There Are Differencies”, Cross Talk, June 2002
  100. D.J. Reifer: ”Web Development: Estimating Quick-to-Market Software”, IEEE Software, pp. 57 - 64, November/December 2000
  101. D.J. Reifer: ”Asset-R: A function point sizing tool for scientific and real-time systems”, Journal of Systems Software, vol. 11, Issue 3, pp. 159 - 171, 1990
  102. M.P. Robillard, W. Coelho, G.C. Murphy: ”How Effective Developers Investigate Source Code: An Exploratory Study”, IEEE Transactions of Software Engineering, pp. 889 - 903, December 2004
  103. G. Rule: ”Bees and the art of Estimating”, side bar in ”Guest Editor’s Introduction: Software Estimation Perspective”, IEEE Software, p 23, November/December, 2000
  104. H. Sackman, W.J. Erikson, E.E. Grant: "Exploratory Experimental Studies Comparing Online and Offline Programming Performance", Communications of the ACM, pp. 3 - 11, January 1968
  105. J. Smith: The Estimation of Effort Based on Use Cases, Rational Software white paper, 1999
  106. C. Steindl, P.l Krogdahl: Estimation in Agile Projects, IBM Academy of Technology Best Practices in Project Estimation Conference, IBM Corporation
  107. R. D. Stutzke: Estimating Software-Intensive Systems : Projects, Products, and Processes, Addison-Wesley Professional (SEI Series in Software Engineering, book’s companion web site), 2005
  108. C.R. Symons: ”Function Point Analysis: Difficulties and Improvements”, IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, pp. 2 - 11, January 1988
  109. C.R. Symons: Software Sizing and Estimating - Mk II Function Point Analysis, Wiley, January 1991
  110. L.M. Taff & J.W. Borchering & W.R. Hudgins Jr.: ”Estimeetings: Development Estimates and a Front-End Process for a Large Project”, IEEE Transaction on Software Engineering, January 1990
  111. K. H. Teigen, M. Jørgensen: "When 90% confidence intervals are only 50% certain: On the credibility of credible intervals", Applied Cognitive Psychology 19:455--475, 2005 or Simula Research Laboratory BEST publications
  112. Project Estimation: Use Case Point Technique - Liemur Ltd.
  113. Project Estimation: Wideband Delphi (WBD) - Liemur Ltd.
  114. J. Verner & G. Tate: ”Estimating Size and Effort in Fourth-Generation Development”, IEEE Software, pp. 15 - 22, July 1988
  115. F. Wellman: Software Costing, Prentice-Hall, 1992
  116. S. Withmare et.al.: Scientific and real-time software metrics - Draft preliminary technical report, Boing Company, January 9, 1991
  117. S. Woodward: An Estimating Methodology for Object-Oriented Software, 1999